Innovations Realized

Forecasting Ability of Non-consumer Scorecards and their Ability to Predict Probability of Default

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for loss allowances are changing, and financial institutions are proactively adapting existing methodologies and developing new ones to remain compliant. The main ingredient in the myriad of evaluations that banks are required to perform for compliance is risk assessment. The first goal of this research project is to review best practice risk models, with a special focus on modeling the evolution of default probabilities. In particular, the project evaluates the forecasting ability of internally credit ratings of borrowers in predicting probability of default. The linkage between internal scores and probability of default will be explored using a classical statistical approach (re-logit) and a methodology stemming from recent advances in machine learning (random forest with undersampling).

Dynamic Credit Scoring

Banks use a myriad of methodologies to inform their officers on credit extension decisions. One of the most employed approach is to summarize borrower creditworthiness by credit scores, which in turn depend on loan default probabilities. The probability of default depends both on borrower characteristic and on the overall state of the economy. The goal of this project is to create credit scores that are responsive to the expected state of the economy. The core idea is to establish the link between default probabilities and borrower characteristics separated in good and bad-market state scenarios. These good/bad-market-states scores are then combined using forecasts of the probability of the economy falling in either scenarios. The output is dynamic credit scoring for borrowers characteristics.

Drivers of Time to Resolution, Application of LASSO Regression and Random Forest

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for loss allowances are changing, and financial institutions are proactively adapting existing methodologies and developing new ones to remain compliant. The main ingredient in the myriad of evaluations that banks are required to perform for compliance is risk assessment. The first goal of this research project is to review best practice risk models, with a special focus on modeling the evolution of default probabilities. In particular, the project evaluates how firm and loan characteristics and macroeconomic conditions explain time to resolution of a portfolio of loans. The approach draws from the classical statistical approach of survival models and from two machine learning methodologies (LASSO regression and random forest).

Graduating from the Integrated Periphery: Turkey’s Attempt to Becomea “Core” Automotive Nation and Its Implications for Non-CoreAutomotive-Producing Countries like Canada

The automotive industry contributes significantly to the Canadian economy as well as to the economies of many other countries, providing substantial employment opportunities. In recent decades, the sector has gone through
significant restructuring with some countries like Canada unable to prevent declining employment and production figures. The general strategy of policymakers in Canada has been to provide incentives to firms that manufacture
or conduct R&D activities in the country, but this has not brought growth to the industry. This project aims to explore the strategies deployed by Turkey with regard to the development of a new domestic electric vehicle under the brand ‘TOGG’ and draw an lessons for the Canadian stakeholders as well as for other automotive-producing nations.

Multi-scale direct measurements and source determination of methane emissions in Montréal

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and reducing methane emissions is a key strategy in many climate change action plans. Because cities and their methane emissions are growing, it is essential to characterize and mitigate methane emissions from urban sources. Because there are no published studies of methane emission measurements in Montréal, we propose to conduct direct measurements to quantify methane emission rates and attribute the emissions to sources in Montréal. The results from the proposed project can better estimate urban greenhouse gas emissions and provide new greenhouse gas emissions reduction options to governments and companies.

Evaluating anthropogenic impacts on arctic breeding raptors

Peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) and rough-legged hawks (Buteo lagops) breed throughout the Canadian Arctic. Several monitoring programs were established in the 1970’s and 1980’s to evaluate the recovery of these and other raptors following the banning of DDT. DDT is a pesticide that was once widely used, but resulted in severe population declines in many raptors via its action of reducing egg shell thickness, resulting in low breeding success. Although raptor populations have recovered over the last several decades, the arctic is increasingly affected by other anthropogenic impacts including landscape disturbance from industrial activities (e.g., mining) and climate change. This project will study peregrines and rough-legged hawks at two sites Nunavut with the aim of understanding how these raptors respond to human-generated disturbances. Specifically, this project will address the following three questions: 1) How does proximity to anthropogenic disturbance such as mining activity affect nesting site selection? 2) Does the intensity of response to human observers visiting the nest predict other parental care behaviours? 3) How does year-to-year variation in environmental conditions affect the provisioning behaviour of parents? Each of these questions will be considered in light of their consequences for breeding productivity.

Extensive post treatment monitoring project: barrier remediation on salmonid streams in British Columbia

Out-dated culverts are the most numerous barriers to fish movement and habitat connectivity in British Columbia, barring juvenile salmonids from thousands of kilometers of freshwater rearing habitat. The Canadian Wildlife Federation (CWF) has untaken an initiative to strategically remediate culverts in B.C. for improved juvenile salmon habitat access. However, the impacts and restoration requirements of culvert remediation for juvenile salmonids in the wild remains unclear. Working directly with CWF, the intern will investigate the effects of culvert remediation on fish movements, habitat use, growth, and survival through a large-scale, post-treatment analysis of previously remediated culverts. This will be done using habitat assessments, fish abundance estimates, and mark-recapture techniques to compare juvenile salmon habitat use above and below previously remediated impediments to fish movement. The intern will provide CWF with an effectiveness monitoring report that will inform future remediation efforts and can be used to acquire funding for further restoration projects.

Nano-engineered concrete and composites with advanced graphene-based 2D nanomaterials

The development of high performance and durable concrete material is extensively required in the present world to build resilient and sustainable infrastructure. This project will open the prospects for developing a high performing advanced concrete composite engineered with graphene-based nanomaterials. Graphene is a nanomaterial typically produces from graphite, with extraordinary strength and chemical properties. The partner organization in this project is ZEN Graphene Solutions Ltd., the owner of a large high-quality graphite mineral in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada. The use of graphene in concrete is expected to mitigate different limitations of concrete and increase its strength and durability performances. ZEN will be benefited from the knowledge and technology development on the suitable forms of graphene materials required for high performance and durable concrete materials production. This high-performance concrete application is highly desirable in the Canadian infrastructure development industry.

Work, Family, Life During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is a rapidly evolving, dramatic health crisis. Daily, the numbers are rising of people infected with, and killed by, the novel coronavirus. Due to physical distancing measures put in place to slow the spread of the virus, there are unprecedented work/life situations for thousands of Canadians, particularly those who are faced with the challenge of working remotely while providing care to their children and dependents such as elderly parents. This study, conducted over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, will collect data from 60-80 adults across Ontario who have both work and care-giving responsibilities. Through an intake survey, followed by weekly phone interviews, researchers will examine their challenges, stressors, and coping strategies throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Research results will help governments, business, and mental health support organizations better understand the social and human costs of crises such as pandemics.

Using Additive Manufacturing to Minimize COVID 19 Transmission – Product & Process Development Support

This project is developed to leverage 3D printing to fabricate personnel protective equipment and other products that can help us navigate the COVID 19 pandemic. 3D printing can be used to quickly fabricate a design idea, but it is a slow process, and there is some inherent porosity, so using this process to make masks is problematic, and other products may prematurely fail. We can use the 3D printed parts for proof of concept, and as patterns to fabricate low volume molds. These molds will be complex, but using a rapid tooling fabrication approach, variants can be made and tested quickly to develop a robust manufacturing solution. This project is meant to support interim activities for addressing the COVID 19 pandemic

British Columbia – A History

British Columbia – A History is a 4-part documentary television series and an interactive online historical timeline of the past 150+ years of BC history that will be comprised of interviews, archives and news research that will explore methods of historical recreation and knowledge production by incorporating an inclusive and multi-narrative approach to major historical events in the recent past and during the formation of the province, for Knowledge Network.

Through purposeful, deep archival and historical news research interns will learn how to scrutinize materials for an inclusive and pluralistic approach to dig up nuanced representations that fully represent our complex and interwoven cultural histories in Western Canada. Interns will also develop a comprehensive database design with easily searchable metatags, an easily designed interface of the web portal, written content and curation of pluralistic resources in each of the individual chapters of the episodes.

Accelerating eVTOL Research Outcomes (AeRO)

Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) vehicles represent the new frontier of transportation electrification. Since the dawn of aviation, enthusiasts have dreamed of “flying cars” that can reduce trips that take hours on the ground to minutes in the air, improving productivity and quality of life. What was previously the realm of science fiction is rapidly becoming a viable commercial reality. However, significant performance and efficiency improvements, at both individual component and overall system levels, must be made in order to bring eVTOL from the proof-of-concept stage to a viable product. This project will research and develop models, prototypes, and tools to support the development of power electronics components, controls and architectures for an eVTOL application under developed by our industry partner. In so doing, this project will enable the development of eVTOL aircraft that will: reduce emissions; meet stringent safety requirements; comply with aerospace standards; address an emerging global market opportunity; and provide engineering postgrads with a unique opportunity to gain hands-on experience in an emerging sector with excellent career prospects.