Incorporating randomness into the PROMETHEUS Fire Growth Simulator

Forest fires are a natural feature of the Canadian landscape, but they pose a threat to individuals and property. Being able to predict the behaviour of a given forest fire is an important element in successfully managing fire suppression resources. Alberta Department of Sustainable Resource Development is responsible for PROMETHEUS, Canada's foremost fire growth modeling tool. PROMETHEUS is a program which simulates the growth of a fire from a single ignition. Currently, it doesn't allow for any kind of randomness or uncertainty. The internship will be devoted to enhancing this growth simulator using modern statistical techniques to incorporate uncertainty into the predictions that PROMETHEUS produces. Probability maps will ultimately be constructed for given fires indicating danger at particular locations. Such probability maps will be of value to fire managers, not only in Alberta, but across the country.

Faculty Supervisor:

Dr. W. John Braun

Student:

Lengyi Han

Partner:

Government of Alberta

Discipline:

Statistics / Actuarial sciences

Sector:

Forestry

University:

Western University